{"id":6786,"date":"2025-05-08T11:19:38","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T11:19:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/?p=6786"},"modified":"2025-05-08T18:21:05","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T18:21:05","slug":"nintendo-switch-2-year-one-sales-predictions-are-not-as-high-as-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/08\/nintendo-switch-2-year-one-sales-predictions-are-not-as-high-as-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"Nintendo Switch 2 year one sales predictions are not as high as you think"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"img-container shareable-item wp-caption\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n\t\t<img width=\"646\" height=\"363\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" class=\"article-image wp-image-23049070 lazyload\" alt=\"Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch 2 side by side comparison\" loading=\"lazy\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/SEI_250408324-686e.jpg\">\t<\/div><figcaption>How will both consoles fare once the Switch 2 launches? (Nintendo\/YouTube)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The latest financial results from <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/tag\/nintendo\/\">Nintendo<\/a> include sales estimates for the <a data-track=\"inline-tag-auto-link_article\" href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/tag\/nintendo-switch-2\/\">Switch 2<\/a> and its predecessor, as tariffs make accurate predictions almost impossible.<\/p>\n<p>With <a data-track=\"inline-tag-auto-link_article\" href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/tag\/grand-theft-auto\/\">GTA 6<\/a> officially <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/05\/02\/gta-6-release-date-announced-worst-news-possible-23015647\/\">not coming out until next year<\/a>, 2025 is open season for Nintendo. The Nintendo Switch 2 is poised to dominate the gaming scene upon its launch this June and Nintendo has a string of first party games coming out throughout the following months.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts have been <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/03\/06\/nintendo-switch-2-will-outsell-ps5-first-three-months-says-analyst-22680348\/\">trying to predict<\/a> how well the new console will perform, but now Nintendo has published its own numbers as part of its latest financial report.<\/p>\n<p>Intriguingly, Nintendo is estimating that the console will sell more units in its first year than the original Switch managed, but much less than analysts have predicted.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How much will the Switch 2 sell in its first year?<\/h2>\n<p>Nintendo is aiming to <strong>sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles throughout the 2026 fiscal year<\/strong>, which runs until the end of March 2026. Since the Switch launches on June 5, that gives it nine months to reach that total.<\/p>\n<p>By comparison, the Switch 1 sold just under 15 million units in its first nine months, so Nintendo is banking on its successor being a smidge more popular &#8211; but basically the same.<\/p>\n<p>While this would still make the Switch 2 one of the fastest selling consoles ever, last month analysts were predicting <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/04\/24\/nintendo-switch-will-biggest-console-launch-video-game-history-says-expert-22968178\/\">six to eight million sales worldwide<\/a>, which would be the biggest launch of any games console ever.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Nintendo Switch 2 \u2013 Overview trailer\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/B1-W7ZV0RNw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The reason for Nintendo lowballing its estimates is obvious. The <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/04\/02\/trump-declares-liberation-day-tariffs-make-america-wealthy-22839776\/\">sweeping tariffs<\/a> announced last month by US president Donald Trump have resulted in a lot of economic uncertainty for Nintendo, as well as every other business.<\/p>\n<p>It hasn\u2019t helped that the new rules kept changing, with Trump pausing his initial tariffs <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/04\/10\/donald-trump-accused-market-manipulation-paused-tariffs-22883455\/\">only a week later<\/a>, except for anything coming from China. What\u2019s more, his tariffs against China kept going up and currently sit at 145%.<\/p>\n<p>As a reminder, Nintendo manufactures a lot of its hardware in China, which is why it\u2019s been moving console production to Vietnam to bypass these tariffs\u2026 only for Vietnam to be slapped with increased tariffs anyway. Although they did come down to 10% after a few days.<\/p>\n<p>All that makes it very difficult to tell how well the Switch 2 will sell globally, so Nintendo is likely trying to keep expectations in check. If the chaos of the last month or so has proven anything, it\u2019s that things can drastically change at any moment.<\/p>\n<p>The problem is that investors will know about the high-balled analyst predictions, even though they&#8217;re not official, and Nintendo&#8217;s share price will suffer if they&#8217;re not achieved.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"img-container shareable-item wp-caption\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n\t\t<img width=\"646\" height=\"461\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" class=\"article-image wp-image-22968847 lazyload\" alt=\"Nintendo Switch 2 in its dock alongside Joy-Con 2 controllers\" loading=\"lazy\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SEI_248659281-f94c.jpg\">\t<\/div><figcaption>Nintendo even had to delay when pre-orders would be available in the US and Canada (Nintendo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This sentiment was echoed by analyst Dr Serkan Toto, who told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.videogameschronicle.com\/news\/nintendo-predicts-record-breaking-switch-2-launch-and-switch-1-to-outsell-ps2-this-year\/\">VGC<\/a>, \u2018When it comes to forecasts, I would not want to be in Nintendo\u2019s shoes now,&#8217; analyst Dr Serkan Toto told <a href=\"https:\/\/www.videogameschronicle.com\/news\/nintendo-predicts-record-breaking-switch-2-launch-and-switch-1-to-outsell-ps2-this-year\/\">VGC<\/a>. &#8216;God knows how the tariff situation will evolve even over the next few days, so how is a company supposed to predict sales for an entire year?\u2019<\/p>\n<p>That said, it&#8217;s unlikely the Switch 2 will do poorly. Despite Nintendo&#8217;s efforts to meet sales demand, the console&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/04\/23\/switch-2-demand-far-exceeds-expectations-nintendo-apologises-players-22960661\/\">already sold out in Japan<\/a>, with company president Shuntaro Furukawa publicly apologising for not having enough launch stock available.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How much has the Nintendo Switch sold in total?<\/h2>\n<p>As for the original Switch, Nintendo is expecting a massive drop in sales. According to its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nintendo.co.jp\/ir\/pdf\/2025\/250508_5e.pdf\">financial results<\/a>, it sold 10.8 million Switch consoles in the 2025 fiscal year and predicts it will sell a further 4.5 million this year.<\/p>\n<p>That drop is not surprising considering the console\u2019s age and the arrival of its shiny new sibling. However, if hits that target then overall sales will pass 156 million.<\/p>\n<p>That would be quite the milestone since it would officially beat the Nintendo DS\u2019 lifetime sales \u2013 154.02 million \u2013 and become Nintendo\u2019s best-selling console ever.<\/p>\n<p>The Switch 1 still has some life left in it, with Rhythm Heaven Groove and Tomodachi Life: Living The Dream <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/03\/27\/nintendo-really-bringing-back-two-niche-franchises-switch-2026-22804968\/\">on track for a 2026 launch<\/a>, not to mention the cross-gen Metroid Prime 4 this year.<\/p>\n<p>As such, the Switch 1 is still in with a chance to overtake the PlayStation 2, the world\u2019s best-selling console. The PlayStation 2\u2019s lifetime sales are said to be <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2024\/11\/27\/shuhei-yoshida-confirms-exit-sony-moves-goalposts-playstation-2-sales-total-22073819\/\">more than 160 million<\/a>, but the Switch 1 could surpass it in the next year or so if Nintendo really does have more games planned for it.<\/p>\n<p>The PlayStation 2&#8217;s total used to be 155 million but Sony suddenly moved the goalposts to the much vaguer figure above, as soon as the Switch started getting close to it.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, it is perfectly likely that the Switch 1 will exceed 160 million sales, especially as it will be kept on sale as a lower priced alternative to the Switch 2.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"img-container shareable-item wp-caption\">\n<div class=\"img-wrap\">\n\t\t<img width=\"646\" height=\"363\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" class=\"article-image wp-image-22877610 lazyload\" alt=\"Mario Kart World\" loading=\"lazy\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/SEI_246889214-ec40.jpg\">\t<\/div><figcaption>There&#8217;s a reason Nintendo picked Mario Kart World as its big Switch 2 launch title (Nintendo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong><em>Email&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:gamecentral@metro.co.uk\">gamecentral@metro.co.uk<\/a>, leave a comment below,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GameCentral\">follow us on Twitter<\/a>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/newsletters\/\">sign-up to our newsletter<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>To submit Inbox letters and Reader\u2019s Features more easily, without the need to send an email, just use our&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/submit-stuff\/\">Submit Stuff page here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For more stories like this,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/entertainment\/gaming\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">check our Gaming page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"metro-more-link\"><title>Arrow<\/title><span class=\"mor-link\" data-track-module=\"mor-link_article\">MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/05\/07\/nintendo-switch-2-less-a-month-away-can-pre-order-23030258\/?ico=more_text_links\" class=\"\">Nintendo Switch 2 is less than a month away \u2013 here\u2019s where you can pre-order<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"metro-more-link\"><title>Arrow<\/title><span class=\"mor-link\" data-track-module=\"mor-link_article\">MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2024\/12\/18\/nintendo-switch-sells-46-600-000-consoles-beating-ps2s-lifetime-sales-us-22214041\/?ico=more_text_links\" class=\"\">Nintendo Switch sells 46,600,000 consoles beating PS2\u2019s lifetime sales in the US<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"metro-more-link\"><title>Arrow<\/title><span class=\"mor-link\" data-track-module=\"mor-link_article\">MORE: <a href=\"https:\/\/metro.co.uk\/2025\/05\/05\/switch-2-replica-leaker-learns-shouldnt-upset-nintendo-lawyers-23029377\/?ico=more_text_links\" class=\"\">Switch 2 replica leaker learns why you shouldn\u2019t upset Nintendo and their lawyers<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How will both consoles fare once the Switch 2 launches? (Nintendo\/YouTube) The latest financial results from Nintendo include sales estimates for the Switch 2 and its predecessor, as tariffs make accurate predictions almost impossible. With GTA 6 officially not coming out until next year, 2025 is open season for Nintendo. The Nintendo Switch 2 is poised to dominate the gaming scene upon its launch this June and Nintendo has a string of first party games coming out throughout the following &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/08\/nintendo-switch-2-year-one-sales-predictions-are-not-as-high-as-you-think\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Nintendo Switch 2 year one sales predictions are not as high as you think&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[12],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6786"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6786"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6786\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6789,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6786\/revisions\/6789"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/506"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.isshicare.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}